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| Morgan Stanley Ungkap Tiga Skenario Harga Saham GoTo |
Morgan Stanley conveyed three scenarios for the share price of technology issuer PT Goto Gojek Tokopedia Tbk (GOTO ). This assumption was conveyed in a research entitled "GoTo, An Indonesian Super App... Significantly Overvalued " published July 19, 2022.
scenario bull case GoTo's share price is estimated to be at Rp 485 per share, assuming the market share business mobility and e-commerce continues to increase at 51% and 33% in the next three years. Meanwhile, the delivery market also rose to 33%.
scenario base case GoTo's share price is projected to be at the level of Rp. 230 per share. assumption market share business mobility decline to 47%, while the e-commerce will grow to 28%. Meanwhile, the delivery business is estimated to decline to 47% in 2025 from the current 53% range.
Meanwhile, in the third scenario, namely the bear case , Morgan Stanley projects GoTo's share price to be at the level of IDR 140 per share assuming the market share will drop to 45% and the e-commerce will also fall to 24% in 2025. Meanwhile, the delivery will decline to 45% in the next three years.
In his research, Morgan Stanley has also assigned an underweight with a price target of around Rp. 230 per share. According to Morgan Stanley, GoTo has the potential to capture opportunities for the sustainable structural growth of digital consumers and the post-COVID-19 recovery cycle.
However, when Morgan Stanley compares GoTo with its two competitors, Grab and Sea Group, which also have a super app, total addressable market ( TAM) is smaller with a structurally lower level of potential profitability.
"GoTo will likely be able to solve its money-making problems post 2025, and will likely become a stronger business after the inclusion of e-commerce in its super app," Morgan Stanley research wrote.
Currently, GoTo's TAM revenue is at the level of US$ 16 billion, lower than Grab's US$ 20 billion and Sea's US$ 65 billion. Grab and Sea's revenue is bigger because they are located in more countries.
"In addition, we estimate that GoTo has lost its market leadership in its core market in Indonesia because Grab is on-demand and Shopee is in e-commerce," the research reads.
With lower profitability than ASEAN counterparts, GOTO will and less cash. "We estimate that on-demand and e-commerce will only achieve EBITDA profitability by 2024/25e," said Morgan Stanley.
In addition, there are a number of risks looming over GoTo. Among other things, the risk of GoTo being out of the Singapore and Vietnam markets. Second, increased competition has allowed GoTo to break even faster than expected in Indonesia's core EBITDA market. Third, a significant cost reduction which means GoTo will not need to raise capital in the next three years.
As of the first quarter of this year, referring to GOTO's unaudited financial statements, the company recorded a loss attributable to owners of the parent entity of Rp 6.47 trillion. The loss increased by 72% from the same period the previous year of Rp 1.81 trillion.
In the first three months of this year, the company posted a net income of Rp 1.49 trillion, up 65.48% from the same period in the previous year of Rp 904.83 billion. This figure was obtained from the company's gross revenue of Rp 5.23 trillion after deducting promotional costs to customers of Rp 3.73 trillion in the first quarter of this year.
In line with the increase in revenue, the Gojek and Tokopedia merger also recorded an increase in cost of revenue to Rp 1.21 trillion from the previous year of Rp 693.14 billion.
Selling and marketing expenses rose to Rp 3.30 trillion from the previous year's Rp 431.49 billion. Meanwhile, general and administrative expenses rose from Rp 697.33 billion to Rp 2.58 trillion.